KEY POINTS
- WMO gives nearly 100% probability that El Niño persists through February 2027.
- MGAP prepares institutional alert and places climate emergency monitoring group in permanent session.
- Credit and financial tools being designed with BROU, Microfinanzas, and CND for producers.
Uruguay’s government is finalizing a contingency plan for agricultural producers as El Niño intensifies toward its expected peak in December, with the Ministry of Livestock, Agriculture and Fisheries (MGAP) preparing institutional alerts and financial support.
The World Meteorological Organization now puts the probability of El Niño persisting through February 2027 at nearly 100%, a scenario first reported by Ámbito. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo described the event as potentially one of the most intense since at least 1950, noting that the ocean feeding it is the warmest ever measured, leaving more heat available to be released.
Minister Alfredo Fratti and Undersecretary Matías Carámbula met on Wednesday with agricultural institute authorities and MGAP unit directors to prepare the declaration of an institutional alert. That alert would facilitate the activation of contingency measures in the coming days.
The ministry will also place the Interinstitutional Monitoring and Management Group for Climate Emergency in permanent session. The group has been working since late 2025 and will consolidate coordination and advisory functions for decision-making, incorporating producer proposals.
Financing is a central element. MGAP is working with Banco República (BROU), Microfinanzas, and the National Development Corporation (CND) to design credit lines and financial tools for producers before, during and after potential climate impacts.
Climate Risk and Uruguay’s Investment Resilience
For international investors, the preparation signals that climate volatility is now a permanent input in Uruguay’s agricultural risk management. The International Monetary Fund already cut Uruguay’s 2026 growth forecast to 1.3% because of drought, and ECLAC estimates an extreme El Niño could erase at least 2% of regional GDP over three years. Uruguay still ranks among the better-prepared economies in Latin America to absorb the disruption, reflecting stronger institutions and infrastructure; the proactive use of state banks and contingency frameworks reinforces that buffer.
